Friday, January 4

The Adventures of Huckabee's Win and Other Stories

So the numbers are in and Huckabee wins big. As did Obama.

Iowa Republican Votes (95% in) /
Democratic Delegate Totals (100% in)

Mike Huckabee 39,814 34%
Barack Obama 940 38%
Mitt Romney 29,405 25%
John Edwards 744 30%
Fred Thompson 15,521 13%
Hillary Clinton 737 29%
John McCain 15,248 13%
Bill Richardson 53 2%
Ron Paul 11,598 10%
Joe Biden 23 1%
Rudy Giuliani 4,013 4%
Chris Dodd 1 0%
Duncan Hunter 515 1%
Dennis Kucinich 0 0%
Alan Keyes 0 na%
Mike Gravel 0 0%

So who else won (or lost)?


Hillary Clinton: By coming in only third in Iowa after spending massive time and effort in the state she is the biggest loser on the Democratic side. Watch for a universal unload of Clinton stock.

Mitt Romney: $7 million is a load of cash. To spend that, and after being ahead for most of the year in Iowa he loses big in Iowa to an upstart. Iowans branded hard the perception that he is the establishment pick without middle America appeal or sincerity.

Rudy Giuliani: Although he never even campaigned here, his 4% showing still hurts his front running status nationally. After all, Iowa as a swing state that went to Bush in 2004 and since the people who go to the caucus are those will be your campaigners in the state, its pretty hard to have only 4% support and believe you can swing the mid-west in a general election.

Fred Thompson: He needed to steal the show. Huckabee has pulled the value voter out from under him.

All others below 4%. See them drop out soon. Now or shortly after NH.

Other Winners

John Edwards: He needed a gold to launch him into serious viable candidate. Again, knocking down Hillary to third boosts him into the winning side. He must win North Carolina to move forward though.

John McCain: He didn't need to win as he has staked it all on New
Hampshire. Romney's defeat however, was as important to him as his own
success. Look for a vulnerable Romney going into NH.

Ron Paul: He wins (for the short term) enough to pull in more internet dough. Proves that the Dean affect still lives: internet buzz does not directly correspond to voter support. Look for Ron Paul to continue to provide intellectual, internet, and libertarian interest for many months to come without any real chance at the Whitehouse. The real question: will Fox News and others let him debate if he beat Giuliani?